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This is the page for an operational solar flare AI prediction model,
Deep Flare Net. Solar flares can cause
solar storms, communication failures, satellite failures, etc. Ths model
uses deep neural networks to forecast
the largest solar flares that will occur within the next
24 hours, and updates the forecast every few hours.
Today's forecast by DeFN 131A
Flare Forecast by NICT:
Solar flares are daily predicted by human hand in NICT,
where Deep Flare |
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Impact by Solar Flares:
Solar flares are classified by the amount of X-ray emissions. The
classes are X, M, C, B, and A, in descending
order of magnetitude. The class increases by one when the amount
of X-rays becomes 10 times larger. When
a flare of M5.0 or higher, which is five times larger than the M1.0
class flare, occurs, we must be vigilant
becasue a radio blackout will occur, soon after X-rays will disable
shortwave communications on the ground.
Figure 1: Example of solar flare observations and soft X-ray light curve (GOES/NOAA) [Today]
The attenucation of shortwave communications by solar flares is
called the Dellinger phenomenon or
sudden ionospheric disturbances. Shortwave communications use reflections
in the ionosphere to communicate
over long distances. However, when the atmosphere is heated by X-rays from a
flare, radio waves are absorbed
and not reflected, making communication impossible. This phenomenon occurs
on the day side of the earth.
Figure 2: Example of a map of the Dellinger phenomenon based
on solar X-ray observations.
The color bar indicates the degree of influence. The red line represents the path
of inercontinental
long-distance communication using shortwave communicatnions. [
Today]
In addition to X-rays, solar flares emit high-energy charged particles,
which can cause astronaut and aircrew
exposure and communication anomalies in the polar regions. When a coronal mass
ejection (CME) strekes the
Earth, it causes geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances that increase the risk of various
failures, including
satellite operations, satellite positioning, and power outages. For more information, please
watch the video below.
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Movie1：SWx and Flare Forecasts Gently Explained |
Movie2：Lecture for elementary school students on |
Links:
Attached is a banner with relevant links.
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