The Deep Flare Net (DeFN) model, which is a solar flare prediction model using AI, is introduced in this papge.
DeFN: | The standard forecasteing model. The advantage is that it misses very few flares.
It can predict flares that will occur within 24 hours for "X-class", "M-class and above", and "C-class and above". (Nishizuka et al. 2018 ApJ) [Download here] |
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DeFN-Reliable (DeFN-R): |
The model with improved reliability of DeFN. The predicted probability presents the actual occurrence frequency.
The user can set their own threshold for prediction. (Nishizuka et al. 2020 ApJ) [Here] |
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DeFN-Quadro (DeFN-Q): |
The model that extends DeFN to 4-class prediction of "X, M, C, None". Flare size can be known more accurately.
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) prediction model is also added. (→ CME NET) (Nishizuka et al. submitted.) |
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Operational DeFN: |
An extention of DeFN to a real-time operational system. (Nishizuka et al. 2021 EPS) [Here] |
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Other References:
About AR detection method and feature extractions in Deep Flare Net
- (1) Solar Flare Prediction Model with Three Machine-learning Algorithmjs using Ultraviolet Brightening and Vector Magnetograms
(Nishizuka et al. 2017 ApJ) [Here]
Active region detection methods, feature extractions and feature rankings are discussed in this paper.